Betting odds on Scottish independence
The odds are of course changing all the time. At September 2021 the betting was slightly favouring independence, while the polls were slightly favouring remain.
Who supports Scottish independence?
Yes voters in 2014 tend to remain yes.
Supporters of Scottish independence
Voters not born in Scotland are likely to be persuadable to Yes. Support for independence is volatile in males aged 34-55, but is stable in other groups. Social groups ABC1 tend to vote "No", but the proportion changes rapidly, indicating there are persuadable people in the group. C2DE social groups are most likely "Yes" voters. Labour and Liberal Democrat voters are volatile in their support for independence. Conservative voters are the most likely to vote "No", although 5% are independence voters.
Understanding Scotland - Society
Alternative Published Date
October 2021
Fast Facts
This first report lays the groundwork for understanding Scottish society as we emerge from the pandemic, and addresses the following fundamental questions: Is Scotland on the right track? Where do we want to go as a country? And who do we trust to help us get there?
Category
How the argument for Yes and UK intransigence are changing minds
Alternative Published Date
2021
Fast Facts
Disillusionment with the UK and the disastrous effects of Brexit are driving a series of high-profile expressions of support for Scotland’s independence.
Category
Believe in Scotland’s Big Indy Poll Results
Date Published
Fast Facts
A survey of over 3,000 people indicates opinions that Scotland will have a referendum, that the spring of 2023 is most popular and that the vote will be "yes". Also that the coalition between SNP and Scottish Greens makes the referendum more likely.
Category
200 No to Yes voters tell us why they now believe in Scotland
Date Published
Fast Facts
A survey of 200 people who changed from "no" to "yes" showed multiple reasons. The main ones were:
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Brexit and Territorial Preferences: Evidence from Scotland and Northern Ireland
Date Published
Fast Facts
The paper analyses the support for Scotland's independence and support for Ireland's unification. The harder the border with EU, the more support in Scotland's independence is indicated.
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Who's Voting Yes? The Demographics of Independence
Date Published
Fast Facts
This week, Craig Dalzell is joined by Ellen Dalzell to discuss the Demographics of Independence.
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The Yes Volunteers: Capturing the biggest grassroots campaign in Scotland’s history
Alternative Published Date
March 2016
Fast Facts
Much has been said about the Yes campaign, much has been written about its vibrancy and excitement, openness and inclusivity.
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The Demographics of Independence – 2021 Edition
Date Published
Fast Facts
Country of Birth is a substantial driver of support for independence. Support for independence is particularly volatile amongst males aged 34-55 but remains relatively stable for other age groups. Support for independence amongst females is generally rising in all age groups.
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