Who supports Scottish independence?

Betting odds on Scottish independence

Stephen Richard — Mon, 18 Oct 2021 22:01:02 +0000

Betting odds on Scottish independence Stephen Richard Mon, 10/18/2021 - 23:01

Author or Creator

Odds checker

The odds will constantly change. They can be checked on such sites as Odds Checker.

Keywords

independence

Independence referendum

Supporters of Scottish independence

Stephen Richard — Fri, 15 Oct 2021 21:59:12 +0000

Supporters of Scottish independence Stephen Richard Fri, 10/15/2021 - 22:59

Author or Creator

Common Weal

Country of Birth is a substantial driver of support for independence. Support for independence is particularly volatile amongst males aged 34-55 but remains relatively stable for other age groups. Support for independence amongst females is generally rising in all age groups.

Remain voters are far more likely to say they will vote for independence and Leave voters now far more likely to vote against.

Social grades ABC1 were overwhelmingly likely to vote No. Social grades C2DE are extremely likely to vote for independence.

Labour and Liberal Democrat voters are volatile with their support for independence. Conservative voters are overwhelmingly against independence but around 5% of Conservative voters are consistently pro-independence.

― Between 2014 and 2018, overall support for independence continuously fell from around 45% to a low of 40%. It subsequently rose continuously to a high just above 50% in early 2021 before dropping back to 45% by June 2021.

― Country of Birth is a substantial driver of support for independence though data is extremely limited in this respect. Support for independence amongst people born in Scotland has fallen below the level of support seen in 2014. Support for independence has risen substantially above 2014 levels among people born outwith Scotland.

― The impact of voters not born in Scotland on support for independence has reduced very substantially since 2014 with the gap between Yes and No in this group narrowing. There is clear evidence that many New Scots can and have been convinced to support independence in the time since 2014.

― Support for independence is particularly volatile amongst males aged 34-55 but remains relatively stable for other age groups.

― Support for independence amongst females is generally rising in all age groups but a substantial ‘generation gap’ is widening and 2021 has seen a dramatic fall in support for independence amongst young females.

― People who voted Yes in 2014 have remained very stable in their support at least since the 2016 Brexit referendum. 2014 No voters are much more changeable and make up the majority of the population of people who have changed their minds one or more times since 2014.

― In 2016 attitudes towards independence and attitudes towards Brexit were not strongly linked but have since become much more correlated. Remain voters are far more likely to say they will vote for independence and Leave voters now far more likely to vote against.

― Social grades ABC1 were overwhelmingly likely to vote No in 2014 but the vast majority of the overall gains in support between 2018 and 2020 came from this group. However, so did the majority of the loss of support in 2021 indicating that this population is swayable, but fickle in its support.

― Social grades C2DE are extremely likely to vote for independence. Their support for independence has also been much more stable as a whole than their ABC1 counterparts. However, this group is substantially less likely to turn out and vote.

― SNP voters are the most likely to support independence though around one in five voters are not. The Brexit referendum saw large drop in support for independence amongst SNP voters followed by a rapid recovery – one interpretation of this is that ‘Leave’ voters have switched to voting for a party other than the pro-EU SNP.

― Labour and Liberal Democrat voters are volatile with their support for independence and are so in a way that doesn’t easily correlate with events affecting the overall polls.

― Conservative voters are overwhelmingly against independence but around 5% of Conservative voters are consistently pro-independence. Extrapolating from the recent elections in Scotland, this indicates that there are more pro-independence Conservative voters in Scotland than there are paid members of the party (the same is also true for Labour and the Lib Dems).

The lack of detailed studies of public attitudes towards independence and/or the Union since 2014 which are publicly available has severely hampered the campaign for Scottish independence and may have led some campaigners to severely misunderstand or simply miss trends and shifting opinions which have significantly changed the electoral map of Scotland in the time since the last independence referendum. It is now urgent that more and better data are gathered not just on headline numbers but within demographics and in a way that can compliment the now considerable level of longitudinal information on shifting trends in opinion on independence.

What scant data we have, gleaned from subsamples of a relatively limited number of polls, are showing that Scotland is not changing its opinion of independence in a ‘uniform swing’ where the whole population moves its support up or down all at once in a manner that one might infer from only looking at headline numbers. Older males are becoming steadily less inclined towards independence at the same time as older females are becoming more inclined. Younger females have experienced a recent and sudden relative aversion towards independence that is not replicated at all by their male peers. The electorate have increasingly aligned their attitudes towards the EU along with their attitudes towards independence in a way that may make it difficult to separate the two. The voters of pro-Union parties are significantly less pro-Union than the parties they vote for. And the attitudes towards independence amongst native Scots is declining whilst ‘New Scots’ are shifting ever more in favour of creating a new country in a land not of their birth.

All of these factors create a problem and an opportunity for the independence movement. The problem is that we need to realign our campaign and messaging based not on our own personal experiences, bias or even prejudices but to base it on the wants and needs of the people we speak to as we campaign. The opportunity, however, is to craft a campaign that is effective, can harness the votes of people who have shown themselves capable of considering independence at some point over the past several years and ultimately create the conditions for an independent Scotland built on a foundation of support that will ensure the best possible start to a new country

Keywords

Yes voters

No voters

Political party support for independence

Understanding Scotland - Society

Stephen Richard — Sun, 14 Nov 2021 21:25:47 +0000

Understanding Scotland - Society

Primary Author or Creator

Diffley Partnership

Stephen Richard Sun, 11/14/2021 - 21:25

Alternative Published Date

October 2021

Category

Society

Type of Resource

survey report

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

19pp

Fast Facts

This first report lays the groundwork for understanding Scottish society as we emerge from the pandemic, and addresses the following fundamental questions: Is Scotland on the right track? Where do we want to go as a country? And who do we trust to help us get there?

More details

TACKLING POVERTY & INEQUALITY IS A TOP CONCERN FOR THE SCOTTISH PUBLIC A third of respondents (34%) put tackling poverty and inequality in the top three issues facing Scotland, at least 8 percentage points ahead of all other issues,

THE SCOTTISH POPULATION WANT A FAIR RECOVERY Coupled with the economy being the second most important issue of concern, there is an evident appetite from the Scottish population for a fair recovery from the pandemic that tackles socioeconomic disparities. The less well-off were more likely to prioritise poverty and inequality, the cost of living and inflation, and mental health and wellbeing, with the economy coming in fourth place.

THE ECONOMY TOPS THE CONCERNS OF THE BETTER OFF, WHILE THE LESS PRIVILEGED ARE FOCUSED ON DAY-TO-DAY PRACTICALITIES Recent news stories appear to have cut through, with the cost of living, mental health and wellbeing, and the environment all featuring in the public’s top concerns.

OTHER PRIORITIES ARE REFLECTIVE OF THE CURRENT CONTEXT AND TOPICAL DEBATES

THE NHS IS SCOTLAND'S MOST TRUSTED INSTITUTION With a fifth of people saying that they trust it 'entirely', the NHS is Scotland's most trusted group, followed by other people in Scotland, and universities.

CONVERSELY, THE MEDIA ARE AMONG THE LEAST TRUSTED With 19% of people reporting that they do not trust the print media 'at all', and 14% saying the same of the broadcast media, there is evidently little faith in the journalistic profession.

FAITH IN POLITICS IS LOW With a fifth of people saying that they do not trust the Government or the political system 'at all', faith in politics is low, and especially so among the less well off.

TRUST IS CONSISTENTLY LOWER AMONG LOWER SOCIAL GRADES On all but one item, trust in given institutions was lower among the less well off. This was especially pronounced with regards to Government and the political system, as well as the broadcast and press media.

SCOTLAND IS SPLIT DOWN THE MIDDLE ON ITS DIRECTION OF TRAVEL 43% of the Scottish population believe that Scotland is heading in the right direction, while the same proportion believe that it is heading in the wrong direction, with the remaining 14% undecided.

Resource Address (URL)

https://www.diffleypartnership.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Understanding-S…

Keywords

Language English

How the argument for Yes and UK intransigence are changing minds

Stephen Richard — Fri, 05 Nov 2021 11:21:07 +0000

How the argument for Yes and UK intransigence are changing minds

Primary Author or Creator

Believe in Scotland

Stephen Richard Fri, 11/05/2021 - 11:21

Alternative Published Date

2021

Category

Independence

Type of Resource

Article

Fast Facts

Disillusionment with the UK and the disastrous effects of Brexit are driving a series of high-profile expressions of support for Scotland’s independence.

More details

Disillusionment with the UK and the disastrous effects of Brexit are driving a series of high-profile expressions of support for Scotland’s independence. Here are just five voices who believe pro-Union parties are failing to make their case.

1: Jon Worth, a journalist and visiting professor at the College of Europe

Mr Worth, an expert on EU affairs, said yesterday that Scots should “save themselves” from the Union, describing the UK as “irrevocably politically f*****”.

His comment was sparked by the Labour Party’s failure at its recent conference to support a proportionally representative voting system for general elections. He used social media to express his frustration with Labour, which he described as a “pile of such moribund hopelessness I now don’t know what the hell to do to save it”.

Really, Scotland, go. Save yourselves because you can

Mr Worth added: “Really, Scotland, go. Save yourselves because you can. And eventually Wales too. And Northern Ireland too, providing it doesn’t end in bloodshed. The UK is so irrevocably politically f**ked & Labour is no answer to Tory malevolence, and Greens and LibDems can’t be under [First Past the Post].”

2: Former Labour First Minister Henry McLeish

During a podcast by the Herald newspaper Mr McLeish told the host, former BBC Scotland political editor Brian Taylor: “Yes, I would support independence”. He said he was now “sceptical” about the Union being able to reform itself, adding: “I’m not an optimist about the possibilities of the Union changing.’’ He said: ‘’If it’s only economic fears that are binding us within the Union, that’s a pretty poor state of affairs. I believe that Scotland could be independent tomorrow.’’

3: Professor Ciaran Martin, the former constitution director at the Westminster Cabinet Office

Professor Martin was all over the media last month when he told the Edinburgh International Book Festival that he expected the Scottish governmentwould lose any court case over a right to hold a referendum.

But he clarified his position recently to The National newspaper, saying he had been “quite surprised” to see the focus of those headlines had not reflected the main thrust of his argument.

He stressed that even if Boris Johnson won the court case it would still help the Yes case. “The theatre and substance of a court wrangle may work in their favour,” he explained.

“The UK government will have to make very awkward arguments, such as that Scotland’s not really a nation with a right to self-determination. Something I heard time and again from convinced Unionists in Scotland is that they would vote passionately and campaign passionately to stay in the Union, but if anyone ever told them in all seriousness that Scotland had no right to leave, then that would be a different matter.”

4: Rock band Texas

Sharleen Spiteri, singer with one of Scotland’s biggest bands, was among the high-profile names backing the Union in 2014. She said at the time. “I think it’s very important to have a Scottish government who make decisions for Scotland but I can’t understand how Scotland would survive independently. ‘’

Now she has changed her mind. The Express newspaper recently wrote an article based on Spiteri’s 2013 comment headlined: “Sharleen Spiteri: Independent Scotland ‘can’t survive’ as ‘we don’t have the resources'”

After Brexit, Sharleen and the rest of Texas now support Scottish Independence

In response, the band’s official Twitter account issued a short post saying: “This is not true. After Brexit, Sharleen and the rest of the band now support Scottish Independence.”

That’s triggered a massive response, racking up more than 6000 likes and in excess of 150 comments.

5: Professor AC Grayling, author and philosopher

Professor Grayling was one of the 200 signatories of the so-called love bomb letter begging Scots to vote No in 2014. He has dramatically changed his mind.

He said recently: “I have now come to the view that it is unconscionable that Scotland, which voted to be in the EU, should be dragged out by England which pays so little attention, has so little interest and care really for Scotland, other than as a useful appendage.”

Resource Address (URL)

https://www.believeinscotland.org/how-the-argument-for-yes-and-uk-intransigence…

Keywords

Supporters of Independence

Language English

Believe in Scotland’s Big Indy Poll Results

Stephen Richard — Mon, 25 Oct 2021 08:20:17 +0000

Believe in Scotland’s Big Indy Poll Results

Primary Author or Creator

Believe in Scotland

Stephen Richard Mon, 10/25/2021 - 09:20

Date Published

Sun, 10/17/2021 - 12:00

Category

Democracy

Type of Resource

Opinion poll

Fast Facts

A survey of over 3,000 people indicates opinions that Scotland will have a referendum, that the spring of 2023 is most popular and that the vote will be "yes". Also that the coalition between SNP and Scottish Greens makes the referendum more likely.

Resource Address (URL)

https://www.believeinscotland.org/believe-in-scotlands-big-indy-poll-results/

Keywords

Independence referendum

Political coalitions

Language English

200 No to Yes voters tell us why they now believe in Scotland

Stephen Richard — Mon, 25 Oct 2021 08:08:14 +0000

200 No to Yes voters tell us why they now believe in Scotland

Primary Author or Creator

Believe in Scotland

Stephen Richard Mon, 10/25/2021 - 09:08

Date Published

Sun, 10/24/2021 - 12:00

Category

Independence

Type of Resource

Opinion poll

Fast Facts

A survey of 200 people who changed from "no" to "yes" showed multiple reasons. The main ones were:

The effect of Brexit
UK government incompetence
Better Together lied
Had come to have more belief in Scotland
Felt NHS was not safe as part of the Union

Resource Address (URL)

https://www.believeinscotland.org/200-no-to-yes-voters-tell-us-why-they-now-bel…

Keywords

Language English

Brexit and Territorial Preferences: Evidence from Scotland and Northern Ireland

Stephen Richard — Tue, 05 Oct 2021 17:48:35 +0000

Brexit and Territorial Preferences: Evidence from Scotland and Northern Ireland

Primary Author or Creator

Lesley-Ann Daniels

Stephen Richard Tue, 10/05/2021 - 18:48

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Alexander Kuo

Date Published

Sun, 02/28/2021 - 12:00

Category

Independence

Type of Resource

Academic Paper

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

26pp

Fast Facts

The paper analyses the support for Scotland's independence and support for Ireland's unification. The harder the border with EU, the more support in Scotland's independence is indicated. It follows the sentiment toward the EU closely. In Northern Ireland the support for unification follows religious lines.

More details

Publius: The Journal of Federalism, Volume 51, Issue 2, Spring 2021, Pages 186–211, https://doi.org/10.1093/publius/pjab004

Resource Address (URL)

https://academic.oup.com/publius/article/51/2/186/6154430?login=true#277537296

Keywords

Brexit

Independence from UK

Language English

Who's Voting Yes? The Demographics of Independence

Stephen Richard — Tue, 14 Sep 2021 11:29:45 +0000

Who's Voting Yes? The Demographics of Independence

Primary Author or Creator

Ellen Dalzell

Stephen Richard Tue, 09/14/2021 - 12:29

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Common Weal

Date Published

Wed, 09/01/2021 - 12:00

Category

Independence

Type of Resource

Podcast

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

29:55 minutes

Fast Facts

This week, Craig Dalzell is joined by Ellen Dalzell to discuss the Demographics of Independence. Ellen has campaigned for several years both for “New Scots” to be included in Scotland’s democracy both through being able to vote – which they now can – but also for them to be better included in data that informs democratic campaigning. They discuss the current weaknesses in the data we have and how that has given rise to misconceptions about the voting intentions of New Scots. They then talk more broadly about the findings of Craig’s latest policy paper that examines who has shifted from No to Yes since 2014 or vice versa.

Resource Address (URL)

https://commonweal.scot/podcast/the-common-weal-policy-podcast-episode-98/

Language English

The Yes Volunteers: Capturing the biggest grassroots campaign in Scotland’s history

Stephen Richard — Sun, 12 Sep 2021 19:57:17 +0000

The Yes Volunteers: Capturing the biggest grassroots campaign in Scotland’s history

Primary Author or Creator

Iain Black

Stephen Richard Sun, 09/12/2021 - 20:57

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Sara Masden, Common Weal

Alternative Published Date

March 2016

Category

Independence

Type of Resource

Assessment report

Fast Facts

Much has been said about the Yes campaign, much has been written about its vibrancy and excitement, openness and inclusivity. It was planned to be the biggest grassroots campaign in Scotland’s history, it has been said that it brought new people to politics and represented a departure from the type of campaign seen when political parties fight for our vote. Yes was said to have been positive and Better Together was supposed to have been negative.

This report provides detailed results of what we believe to be the largest and most comprehensive survey of those who said they took part in the Yes campaign. It examined who the volunteers were, what they did, what they thought of the campaign and their experience of it and the results from it provide evidence to support, refine or debunk ideas held about the campaign.

More details

― 993 Yes volunteers responded to an online survey and to collect their views, we contacted a wide range of Yes supporting groups.

― It aims to understand who campaigned, what they did, what motivated them to take part, their assessment of both the Yes and No campaigns and how they experienced being part of it.

― The survey ranges over 64 questions with many multiple item scales and seeks to provide a detailed account of the results including notes on question wording, order and response formats.

― The Yes campaign was successful in bringing new people into political campaigning and many of them expressed an interest in continuing in organised politics afterwards.

― Overall, we can conclude that volunteers believed that the 2014 independence referendum campaign was the largest ever political campaign seen in Scotland and the campaign culture and leadership appears to have been strongly grassroots orientated.

Resource Address (URL)

https://commonweal.scot/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/The-Yes-Volunteers.pdf

Keywords

Yes Campaign

Independence politics

2014 independence referendum

Language English

The Demographics of Independence – 2021 Edition

Stephen Richard — Thu, 02 Sep 2021 10:15:35 +0000

The Demographics of Independence – 2021 Edition

Primary Author or Creator

Craig Dalzell

Stephen Richard Thu, 09/02/2021 - 11:15

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Common Weal

Date Published

Wed, 08/25/2021 - 12:00

Category

Independence

Type of Resource

Assessment report

Fast Facts

Remain voters are far more likely to say they will vote for independence and Leave voters now far more likely to vote against.

Social grades ABC1 were overwhelmingly likely to vote No. Social grades C2DE are extremely likely to vote for independence.

More details

― Support for independence is particularly volatile amongst males aged 34-55 but remains relatively stable for other age groups.

― Labour and Liberal Democrat voters are volatile with their support for independence and are so in a way that doesn’t easily correlate with events affecting the overall polls.

Resource Address (URL)

https://commonweal.scot/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Demographics-of-Indy-2021.pdf

Keywords

Yes voters

Yes Campaign

No voters

Language English