Can Scotland survive independence?

Scotland has all the organisation for independence

Stephen Richard — Sun, 17 Oct 2021 08:29:22 +0000

Scotland has all the organisation for independence Stephen Richard Sun, 10/17/2021 - 09:29

Author or Creator

Richard Mackenzie-Gray Scott

Considering Scotland has all the necessary machinery in place to become an independent state, we see no obvious reasons why Scotland would not succeed economically if it were to do so, especially if achieved within the bounds of the law.

Keywords

Economic forecasts

Economy

Economy of an independent Scotland

Exclusive: research shows Scotland would have benefitted more from independence than devolution

Stephen Richard — Fri, 05 Nov 2021 12:15:03 +0000

Exclusive: research shows Scotland would have benefitted more from independence than devolution

Primary Author or Creator

Believe in Scotland

Stephen Richard Fri, 11/05/2021 - 12:15

Alternative Published Date

2021

Category

Economy

Fast Facts

Many countries have shown great success after independence, particularly in terms of GDP growth and developing their own currency. Overall, it can be suggested that full independence would have contributed to greater GDP growth for Scotland than devolution.

More details

Since 1990, 34 territories have become independent countries. Many of these new countries were formed as a result of the dissolution of the USSR and Yugoslavia during the 1990s. Others formed as a result of independence and anticolonial movements.

The 1990s was also a significant period for Scotland, with the reconvening of the Scottish parliament and the transfer of devolved powers. This article sets out to compare the different experiences of these newly independent countries and Scotland as a devolved nation, analysing the various currencies that have been adopted, their GDP growth rates and their successes as independent countries.

This will allow us to determine whether Scotland would have benefitted more from independence in the 1990s than from the limited powers obtained through devolution. We will also be able to offer a hypothetical picture of what an independent Scotland may have looked like, including its potential currency and the country’s probable financial situation.

EU members

First, let’s look at the countries that have joined the EU since declaring independence, and examine the currencies that have been adopted and the impact independence has had on their GDP. Of the countries formed since 1990, eight have become members of the EU, including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Croatia, Slovenia, Germany, Czech Republic and Slovakia.

However, not all of these countries have chosen to employ the Euro. For example, Croatia and the Czech Republic introduced their own currency after independence. In fact, in Croatia the National Bank was formed in 1990, before the country was actually independent, and the new Croatian Dinar followed in December 1991. In May 1994 the Croatian Kuna replaced the Dinar, as part of the government’s stabilisation programme that followed Croatia’s involvement in the Bosnia-Herzegovina war. This stabilisation programme and the introduction of the Kuna brought inflation down from the 1993 rates of 1616% to 1.0% in 1994 and 3.7% in 1995. Since the introduction of the Croatian Kuna, it has remained stable and has effectively countered inflationary expectations.

Employing the Euro after independence is not a necessity and countries can join the EU without doing so

Some of the other newly independent countries adopted the Euro further down the line after independence and several years after joining the EU. For example, Estonia gained independence in 1991 and established its own currency – the Estonian Kroon – just 10 months later. Estonia joined the EU in 2004 but did not adopt the Euro until 2011. This highlights that employing the Euro after independence is not a necessity and countries can join the EU without doing so.

The figures show that on average the newly independent countries that have joined the EU have a GDP growth rate of 2.84%. Those that have joined the EU and adopted the Euro have an average of 3.07%. Those countries that are members of the EU but have their own currency averaged at 2.15%.

Non-EU members

So, what is the currency situation and average GDP rate in newly independent countries that are not members of the EU?

The data suggests that across most of these independent countries, a new currency has been formed. The average GDP growth since independence across all of these countries is 2.68%. Among those countries that have created their own currency, it is 3.09%. This suggests that the introduction of a new currency after independence may benefit GDP growth rates.

Scotland

Since the 1990s Scotland has held certain devolved powers. However, unlike the countries that we have examined throughout this article Scotland has not obtained full independence. As a result, it continues to use the British Pound as its currency. So, how does Scotland’s annual GDP growth compare to the newly independent countries that we have looked at? Since devolution was introduced until the present day, Scotland’s GDP growth rate averages at 1.4%. This is considerably lower than the averages we have seen across the many newly formed countries, both within and outside of the EU.

Conclusions

Ultimately, this article has highlighted that different routes and options exist for newly independent counties with regards to currency and EU membership. Many of the countries that have been analysed in this article have shown great success after independence, particularly in terms of GDP growth and developing their own currency. Overall, it can be suggested that full independence would have contributed to greater GDP growth for Scotland than devolution.

Resource Address (URL)

https://www.believeinscotland.org/research-shows-scotland-would-have-benefitted…

Keywords

Prosperity

GDP

Economy

Language English

The economics of secession: a review of legal, theoretical, and empirical aspects

Stephen Richard — Wed, 29 Sep 2021 19:11:41 +0000

The economics of secession: a review of legal, theoretical, and empirical aspects

Primary Author or Creator

Thierry Madiès

Stephen Richard Wed, 09/29/2021 - 20:11

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Grégoire Rota-Grasiozi, Jean-Pierre Tranchant, Cyril Trépier

Alternative Published Date

2018

Category

Economy

Type of Resource

Academic Paper

Fast Facts

Economic theory shows that the decision for a region to remain in a country (or a union) or to secede results from a trade-off between the benefits of being part of a large country, and the costs associated with more heterogeneity. Literature confirms the importance of these trade-offs and shows that decentralization may be effective to accommodate secessionist conflicts only if certain conditions are fulfilled.

More details

Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics volume 154, Article number: 19 (2018)

Resource Address (URL)

https://sjes.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s41937-017-0015-6

Keywords

Economy

secession

Language English

Past the Point of no Return: Scotland, Brexit and Independence

Stephen Richard — Sun, 26 Sep 2021 07:21:12 +0000

Past the Point of no Return: Scotland, Brexit and Independence

Primary Author or Creator

Klaus Stolz

Stephen Richard Sun, 09/26/2021 - 08:21

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Add additional Authors and/or Publisher

Alternative Published Date

2020

Category

Independence

UK Government

Type of Resource

Article

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

47pp

Fast Facts

In his article, Klaus Stolz (Chemnitz) focuses on the Scots’ decision in the Brexit referendum on June 23, 2016. For him, the result is not only representative of the relationship between Scotland and Europe, but also of the relationship between Scotland and the rest of Great Britain. That most Scots want to stay in the EU and thus deviate from the majority of the British is what he regards as part of a bigger domestic political division. Klaus Stolz does not consider Brexit as a cause, but as a possible catalyst for the disintegration of Great Britain.

More details

Hard Times 104 (1/2020)

Resource Address (URL)

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?start=10&q=Can%20Scotland%20survive%20indepe…

Keywords

Brexit

Great Britain Relations Scotland.

European Union

Disintegration of Great Britain

Language English

Claiming Scotland’s Assets: A discussion paper on the division of assets and debts to an independent Scotland

Stephen Richard — Sun, 12 Sep 2021 19:49:42 +0000

Claiming Scotland’s Assets: A discussion paper on the division of assets and debts to an independent Scotland

Primary Author or Creator

Craig Dalzell

Stephen Richard Sun, 09/12/2021 - 20:49

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Common Weal

Alternative Published Date

September 2016

Category

Independence

Type of Resource

Policy Paper

Fast Facts

This paper explores the historical precedents covering how debts and assets are split when states dissolve or become independent and applies those models to the case of Scottish independence.

In particular, the paper rejects the 2014 independence campaign’s “subtractive” approach whereby Scotland adopts a “share” of the UK’s liabilities less the value of an assets withheld by the remaining UK in favour of a “zero option” approach whereby the rUK is allowed to maintain its claim as the continuing state to the former UK and to adopt all mobile assets and liabilities. In such a case, Scotland may choose to “mortgage” the value of a proportion of UK debt against any mobile assets it successfully negotiates from the UK.

More details

― This paper seeks to re-open this discussion, taking as its starting point the historical precedents, as they shall show that not only is this simple model one which has rarely been used in practice, it is not necessarily one which would work to Scotland’s benefit.

― The manner in which states separate is crucial for determining asset division. In particular, the rUK’s likely desire to maintain “successor” or “continuing” status to the former UK will likely be largely determined by its willingness to guarantee the debts of the former state.

― The assumption that the baseline for division should be on population can and should be challenged. Many state separations have negotiated settlements which place weight on territoriality as well as the historical contributions and beneficiaries of the former unions.

― It may be that Scotland has been a historical net contributor to the UK thus may have already more than paid its “share” of the national debt.

― The previous independence campaign discussed the possibility of a subtractive model of asset separation whereby the value of any assets withheld from Scotland by rUK (for example, currency and foreign reserves) would be subtracted from debt liabilities accepted. This report recommends instead an additive model whereby Scotland begins with the assumption of accepting no debt but will accept debt up to the value of assets transferred. It may be that Scotland actually requires less from this transfer than the subtractive model would suggest.

― For the additive model to be actionable, an up-to-date register of assets will be essential. With the last UK Government register of assets in 2007, the Scottish Government must press the UK Government to commission a new register or conduct a Scottish audit in the near future.

― Additionally, the prospect of Scotland issuing its own bonds and buying what is required is explored (‘the zero option’). This model may have significant advantages with regard to being able to denote the debt in Scotland’s own independent currency thus maintaining full control over debt management and significantly reducing the chances of a default.

― The precedents and models outlined would likely all accrue varying levels of financial benefit to Scotland if utilised properly. A lack of up to date data makes precise figures impossible, but a conservative illustration of each model in the Scottish context would suggest a £800m per year financial gain from the subtractive model with refinancing; a £1.7 billion reduction in debt interest payments from the additive model without refinancing; a saving of over £2 billion per year from the zero option; and, in the case of historical net contribution, a possible financial contribution from rUK to Scotland.

Resource Address (URL)

https://commonweal.scot/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Claiming-Scotlands-Assets.pdf

Keywords

Independence negotiation

Language English

Preparing Scotland digitally for independence

Stephen Richard — Sun, 12 Sep 2021 08:32:47 +0000

Preparing Scotland digitally for independence

Primary Author or Creator

Gordon Morgan

Stephen Richard Sun, 09/12/2021 - 09:32

Alternative Published Date

November 2017

Category

Scottish government

Type of Resource

Policy Paper

Fast Facts

Gordon Morgan examines the IT Systems requirements for an independent Scotland in this White Paper Project report.

More details

― Several important areas of Scottish governance, like the NHS, Local Government, and Police and Fire Services, are already devolved. However, other areas like most tax collection, borders and customs, and foreign affairs, are mostly reserved areas and would need to new IT systems established upon independence.

― A tentative estimate of the total cost to build new IT systems for all required areas has been identified at around £1,250 million to be spent over a three year independence transition period. This is comparable to the budgets being identified to reform and upgrade current government IT systems within Scotland in recent years.

― A well designed IT system will aid in quickly recouping this investment in the form of revenue from the customs agency and central bank.

Resource Address (URL)

https://commonweal.scot/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Preparing-Scotland-digitally…

Keywords

Government IT systems

IT systems

Digital independence

Language English