GDP

GDP indicates Scotland has a good economy

Stephen Richard — Mon, 18 Oct 2021 11:22:57 +0000

GDP indicates Scotland has a good economy Stephen Richard Mon, 10/18/2021 - 12:22

Author or Creator

Fraser of Allander Institute

The definition of a good economy is difficult as there are many viewpoints. GDP provides an international comparison. In most years, Scottish GDP per head is larger than UK GDP per head when a geographical share of North Sea oil and gas extraction is included. This is higher than the OECD average. When only a population share of oil and gas is considered, the Scottish GDP per head is slightly below the OECD average. But higher than Italy’s, New Zealand’s, Japan’s and South Korea’s.

In most years, Scottish GDP per head is larger than UK GDP per head, when a geographical share of North Sea oil and gas extraction is included. Some may therefore be inclined to report this figure, and even imply that the average Scot is better off than the average person in the UK as a whole. That is a strong claim to make, and one that requires some caveats, which we will discuss further down.

Scotland’s (and the UK’s) GDP per head at purchasing power parity was lower in 2019 than what we would consider some of the traditionally wealthiest countries: the Scandinavian countries, the US, Germany, France or Australia.

Significantly however, when including a geographical share of oil and gas, the number for Scotland was higher than the OECD average (an organisation of mostly rich countries). And even when ‘only’ a population share of oil and gas is considered, the Scottish figure is slightly higher than Italy’s, New Zealand’s, Japan’s and South Korea’s – all countries that many people would consider ‘wealthy’.

Scotland appears to be doing well by one of the most significant measures of economic performance used and recognised internationally.

Keywords

Economy

Economic data

GDP

Exclusive: research shows Scotland would have benefitted more from independence than devolution

Stephen Richard — Fri, 05 Nov 2021 12:15:03 +0000

Exclusive: research shows Scotland would have benefitted more from independence than devolution

Primary Author or Creator

Believe in Scotland

Stephen Richard Fri, 11/05/2021 - 12:15

Alternative Published Date

2021

Category

Economy

Fast Facts

Many countries have shown great success after independence, particularly in terms of GDP growth and developing their own currency. Overall, it can be suggested that full independence would have contributed to greater GDP growth for Scotland than devolution.

More details

Since 1990, 34 territories have become independent countries. Many of these new countries were formed as a result of the dissolution of the USSR and Yugoslavia during the 1990s. Others formed as a result of independence and anticolonial movements.

The 1990s was also a significant period for Scotland, with the reconvening of the Scottish parliament and the transfer of devolved powers. This article sets out to compare the different experiences of these newly independent countries and Scotland as a devolved nation, analysing the various currencies that have been adopted, their GDP growth rates and their successes as independent countries.

This will allow us to determine whether Scotland would have benefitted more from independence in the 1990s than from the limited powers obtained through devolution. We will also be able to offer a hypothetical picture of what an independent Scotland may have looked like, including its potential currency and the country’s probable financial situation.

EU members

First, let’s look at the countries that have joined the EU since declaring independence, and examine the currencies that have been adopted and the impact independence has had on their GDP. Of the countries formed since 1990, eight have become members of the EU, including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Croatia, Slovenia, Germany, Czech Republic and Slovakia.

However, not all of these countries have chosen to employ the Euro. For example, Croatia and the Czech Republic introduced their own currency after independence. In fact, in Croatia the National Bank was formed in 1990, before the country was actually independent, and the new Croatian Dinar followed in December 1991. In May 1994 the Croatian Kuna replaced the Dinar, as part of the government’s stabilisation programme that followed Croatia’s involvement in the Bosnia-Herzegovina war. This stabilisation programme and the introduction of the Kuna brought inflation down from the 1993 rates of 1616% to 1.0% in 1994 and 3.7% in 1995. Since the introduction of the Croatian Kuna, it has remained stable and has effectively countered inflationary expectations.

Employing the Euro after independence is not a necessity and countries can join the EU without doing so

Some of the other newly independent countries adopted the Euro further down the line after independence and several years after joining the EU. For example, Estonia gained independence in 1991 and established its own currency – the Estonian Kroon – just 10 months later. Estonia joined the EU in 2004 but did not adopt the Euro until 2011. This highlights that employing the Euro after independence is not a necessity and countries can join the EU without doing so.

The figures show that on average the newly independent countries that have joined the EU have a GDP growth rate of 2.84%. Those that have joined the EU and adopted the Euro have an average of 3.07%. Those countries that are members of the EU but have their own currency averaged at 2.15%.

Non-EU members

So, what is the currency situation and average GDP rate in newly independent countries that are not members of the EU?

The data suggests that across most of these independent countries, a new currency has been formed. The average GDP growth since independence across all of these countries is 2.68%. Among those countries that have created their own currency, it is 3.09%. This suggests that the introduction of a new currency after independence may benefit GDP growth rates.

Scotland

Since the 1990s Scotland has held certain devolved powers. However, unlike the countries that we have examined throughout this article Scotland has not obtained full independence. As a result, it continues to use the British Pound as its currency. So, how does Scotland’s annual GDP growth compare to the newly independent countries that we have looked at? Since devolution was introduced until the present day, Scotland’s GDP growth rate averages at 1.4%. This is considerably lower than the averages we have seen across the many newly formed countries, both within and outside of the EU.

Conclusions

Ultimately, this article has highlighted that different routes and options exist for newly independent counties with regards to currency and EU membership. Many of the countries that have been analysed in this article have shown great success after independence, particularly in terms of GDP growth and developing their own currency. Overall, it can be suggested that full independence would have contributed to greater GDP growth for Scotland than devolution.

Resource Address (URL)

https://www.believeinscotland.org/research-shows-scotland-would-have-benefitted…

Keywords

Prosperity

GDP

Economy

Language English

Beyond GDP: here’s a better way to measure people’s prosperity

Stephen Richard — Sun, 17 Oct 2021 10:00:21 +0000

Beyond GDP: here’s a better way to measure people’s prosperity

Primary Author or Creator

Henrietta Moore

Stephen Richard Sun, 10/17/2021 - 11:00

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Institute for Global Prosperity, UCL, The Conversation

Date Published

Tue, 10/12/2021 - 12:00

Category

Economy

Fast Facts

Rather than the outmoded measures of growth, productidvity and income, our research indentifyed 15 headline indicators - a prosperity index - that refledt the actual experience of well being and security for people.

More details

Early evidence suggests the UK government’s approach to levelling up will once again heavily depend on the same tired approaches – like targets for house building and job creation that have failed in the past to resolve regional and local inequalities and address social and economic exclusion.

New levelling up requires a sharing of knowledge. Allowing citizens, local government, businesses and community organisations to collaborate, make decisions, trial radical new approaches and rapidly evaluate change. Shared knowledge creates the opportunity to identify innovative policy options and new pathways to prosperity that are more targeted and more effective at improving quality of life.

Involving local people in the process creates a new way to understand, conceptualise and measure prosperity, inform local decision-making and equip communities with the tools, evidence and confidence they need to monitor progress and hold decision makers to account.

Resource Address (URL)

https://theconversation.com/beyond-gdp-heres-a-better-way-to-measure-peoples-pr…

Keywords

Prosperity

GDP

Language English

A Guide to Scottish GDP

Stephen Richard — Sun, 03 Oct 2021 12:09:10 +0000

A Guide to Scottish GDP

Primary Author or Creator

Fraser of Allander Institute

Stephen Richard Sun, 10/03/2021 - 13:09

Alternative Published Date

2020

Category

Economy

Type of Resource

Guide

Fast Facts

This guide shows the difference between measures of GDP. The guide shows how the Scottish economy compares in the UK and the world. Scotland's GDP per head is at the average of the OECD countries, just behind Great Britain. There are wide regional differences in Gross Vaue Added per head of the most value being 3 times the least area. Disposable income per head has much less variation (38%). The Human Development Index shows Scotland very close and recently narrowing the small gap with the UK

Resource Address (URL)

https://fraserofallander.org/scottish-gdp-guide/

Keywords

GDP

Human Development Index

Income inequality

Household Income

Value Added

Language English

State of the economy

Stephen Richard — Sat, 02 Oct 2021 18:51:10 +0000

State of the economy

Primary Author or Creator

Chief Economic Advisor

Stephen Richard Sat, 10/02/2021 - 19:51

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Scottish Government

Alternative Published Date

2020 -

Category

Economy

Type of Resource

government report

Fast Facts

This is the three times a year report on the Scottish economy in an international context.

Resource Address (URL)

https://www.gov.scot/collections/state-of-the-economy/

Keywords

Language English

SCOTTISH ECONOMY OVERVIEW

Stephen Richard — Sat, 02 Oct 2021 18:33:13 +0000

SCOTTISH ECONOMY OVERVIEW

Primary Author or Creator

Scottish International Development

Stephen Richard Sat, 10/02/2021 - 19:33

Alternative Published Date

2021-

Category

Economy

Type of Resource

Web site

Fast Facts

This gives the Scottish economic statistics from an international investment point of view.

Resource Address (URL)

https://www.sdi.co.uk/business-in-scotland/scottish-economy-overview

Keywords

Language English

Scottish economic statistics

Stephen Richard — Sat, 02 Oct 2021 18:26:51 +0000

Scottish economic statistics

Primary Author or Creator

Scottish Enterprise

Stephen Richard Sat, 10/02/2021 - 19:26

Alternative Published Date

2021

Category

Economy

Type of Resource

government report

Fast Facts

This paper gives key statistics in graphic form showing such things as: Population 5.4 million, GDP as £166.8 billion or £30,530 per person, employment as 74.8%, unemployment as 4.2%, average weekly full time wage as £595, and many more.

Resource Address (URL)

https://www.scottish-enterprise.com/learning-zone/research-and-publications/com…

Keywords

Language English

The truth about the annual GERS figures. Open Minds on Independence #6

Stephen Richard — Thu, 23 Sep 2021 08:16:04 +0000

The truth about the annual GERS figures. Open Minds on Independence #6

Primary Author or Creator

The National

Stephen Richard Thu, 09/23/2021 - 09:16

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Believe in Scotland

Date Published

Tue, 03/02/2021 - 12:00

Category

Economy

Type of Resource

News Media

Fast Facts

There is no set of official accounts that tells us how an independent Scotland’s economy would fare, nor what its finances would look like. Any attempt to analyse Scotland’s finances is instantly hampered by the fact that Scotland is not an independent nation and therefore does not have the same financial data, trade statistics, costs and revenue information available to work with that a normal independent country would have.

Resource Address (URL)

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19130594.open-minds-6-truth-gers---scotlands-…

Keywords

Language English

Scotland’s Fiscal Future

Stephen Richard — Sun, 05 Sep 2021 09:10:32 +0000

Scotland’s Fiscal Future

Primary Author or Creator

Craig Dalzell

Stephen Richard Sun, 09/05/2021 - 10:10

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Common Weal

Date Published

Mon, 08/20/2018 - 12:00

Category

Currency

Scottish government

Type of Resource

Policy Paper

Fast Facts

Common Weal looks at Fiscal Policy and provides an alternative prospectus based on ensuring wellbeing and equality for the people of Scotland.

The quest for GDP and GDP Growth is not sustainable in a finite world and this should also be recognised by an independent Scotland. Metrics such as environmental impact, inequality and wellbeing are far more important and only by elevating them above the quest for “growth at all costs” can a truly fair and sustainable Scotland be created.

More details

― Sterlingisation – the fact that an independent Scotland would lack its own currency – is a root cause of many of the flaws of the underlying philosophy adopted by the Growth Commission.

― Sterlingisation demands that an independent Scotland must run prohibitively tight fiscal budgets and must continually “obsess” over the national public deficit.

― This means that Austerity may become an inevitable national policy despite of the Growth Commission’s claims that this is not desired.

― Particular fiscal rules set by the Growth Commission around the growth of public spending and the link between that growth and the growth of GDP may also result in the imposition of Austerity.

― Population growth may result in GDP growth but if the economy simply enlarges rather than changes shape then this will not result in growth in GDP/capita.

― If public spending growth is constrained to less than GDP growth then this may result in public spending per capita decreasing despite a real terms increase in public spending. Reduced public service provision per person is still Austerity even in a growing economy.

― Sectoral balances in the economy demand that if public sector deficits decrease then deficits must increase elsewhere. This may lead to increases in household debt – as experienced by the UK.

― Only by launching its own currency can Scotland take a more nuanced approach to its fiscal policy, balancing public spending against trade flows to ensure that household debt does not increase. This is impossible under Sterlingisation.

― Growth should not be measured as the sole metric of success in an economy. An approach that takes into account environmental carrying capacity, economic inequality and the wellbeing of citizens is more important.

― Though not recommended, the Growth Commission’s fiscal proposals could be implemented if Scotland had its own currency. Alternative proposals, such as many of Common Weal’s proposals for an independent Scotland, cannot be implemented under Sterlingisation.

― Therefore the most democratic and most “future neutral” approach to independence is to launch a currency by day one of independence then allow future governments the ability to manage fiscal policy as per their manifestos.

Resource Address (URL)

https://commonweal.scot/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Scotlands-Fiscal-Future.pdf

Keywords

Language English