What is the effect of Brexit on support for Scottish independence?

Opinion polls

Scottish opinion

Independent wellbeing economy offers hope rather than Brexit chaos

Stephen Richard — Fri, 05 Nov 2021 11:16:54 +0000

Independent wellbeing economy offers hope rather than Brexit chaos

Primary Author or Creator

Believe in Scotland

Stephen Richard Fri, 11/05/2021 - 11:16

Alternative Published Date

2021

Category

https://www.believeinscotland.org/independent-wellbeing-economy-offers-hope-rat…

Type of Resource

Article

Fast Facts

Independence offers the only realistic chance of escape from a government seemingly hell bent on damaging our economy

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Get Brexit Done … three words which won the Conservative Party the 2019 UK general election south of the Border and the driving force which pushed Boris Johnson to desperately pull together a dangerous and disastrous trade ‘deal’ as the January 1, 2021 deadline approached.

Yet less than a year later Johnson’s government has moved from cheerleaders for the ‘deal’ – which decimated UK exports, particularly Scottish exports, and sparked chaos in supply chains leading to food and petrol shortages all over the country – to standing on the verge of a trade war with Europe.

We’ll soon find out just how serious that trade war threat is. Europe is due to respond to UK government demands that it agree to significant changes to the Northern Ireland protocol, ironically negotiated by UK ministers to avoid a hard land border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

But this rather begs the question: does Boris Johnson really want a deal at all?

Reports suggest it is unlikely the EU will move far enough on protocol changes to satisfy Johnson and his cronies, although European politicians are experts on compromise and may yet make more concessions.

But that rather begs the question: does Boris Johnson really want a deal at all? Certainly Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney recently tweeted his doubts on that, accusing the UK of setting out a new “red line” just days before the EU was set to offer “serious” concessions. He said: “Are we surprised? Real Q: does UKG actually want an agreed way forward or a further breakdown in relations?”

It’s certainly true that the Prime Minister has previously revealed a preference for chaos, which is certainly what his trade ‘deal’ has brought to the UK.

If the Northern Ireland protocol disagreement can’t be resolved a trade war between the EU and the UK looks likely and the consensus is that this would hurt Britain more than Europe. There has even been one suggestion that the EU response could include tariffs on Scottish salmon.

Whether or not that happens it is certainly true that Scotland is suffering from the Brexit catastrophe more than the rest of the UK. The latest figures released by HM Revenue and Customs reveal that in the quarter ended in June 2021 Scottish exports decreased by 14% compared to the same period the previous year. That compared with export declines in England, Wales and Northern Ireland of 2.2%, 13% and 6.1% respectively in the same period.

Independence offers the only realistic chance of escape from a government seemingly hell bent on damaging our economy

All this surely adds power to the case for Scottish independence. It would, after all, offer the only realistic chance of escape from a government seemingly hell bent on damaging our economy and stripping powers from our parliament.

But we need to beware an argument increasingly put forward by Unionist supporters: that Brexit has caused so much trouble that we cannot risk adding independence to an already chaotic situation.

The truth, of course is that the chaos is entirely the creation of a criminally reckless UK government. Independence is entirely normal in most countries in the world, where it works perfectly well.

It is even more essential in Scotland as we emerge from the pandemic and can seize the opportunity to rebuild our economy based on the principles of wellbeing and equality rather than the greed and naked self-interest guiding the actions of the Westminster government.

An economy which works for the benefit of the people of Scotland and reflects their values and priorities.

Over the months ahead Believe in Scotland will show exactly how we can create that economy and offer hope for the future rather than the despair which is the inevitable result of being part of the Union.

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Brexit and Territorial Preferences: Evidence from Scotland and Northern Ireland

Stephen Richard — Tue, 05 Oct 2021 17:48:35 +0000

Brexit and Territorial Preferences: Evidence from Scotland and Northern Ireland

Primary Author or Creator

Lesley-Ann Daniels

Stephen Richard Tue, 10/05/2021 - 18:48

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Alexander Kuo

Date Published

Sun, 02/28/2021 - 12:00

Category

https://academic.oup.com/publius/article/51/2/186/6154430?login=true#277537296

Type of Resource

Academic Paper

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

26pp

Fast Facts

The paper analyses the support for Scotland's independence and support for Ireland's unification. The harder the border with EU, the more support in Scotland's independence is indicated. It follows the sentiment toward the EU closely. In Northern Ireland the support for unification follows religious lines.

More details

Publius: The Journal of Federalism, Volume 51, Issue 2, Spring 2021, Pages 186–211, https://doi.org/10.1093/publius/pjab004

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Keywords

Independence from UK

Language English

Brexit and the Scottish Question

Stephen Richard — Tue, 05 Oct 2021 17:38:03 +0000

Brexit and the Scottish Question

Primary Author or Creator

Sionaidh Douglas-Scott

Stephen Richard Tue, 10/05/2021 - 18:38

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Queen Mary University of London

Date Published

Mon, 06/10/2019 - 12:00

Category

Queen Mary School of Law Legal Studies Research Paper No. 300/2019

Type of Resource

Academic Paper

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

19pp

Fast Facts

The 2016 Scottish vote for remaining in the EU received no consideration by the UK government for possible special arrangements. The prospect of a new independence referendum gains credibility as the paper shows the constitutional convention on consultation was considered irrelevant by the UK government.

More details

Also published in Federico Fabbrini (ed), The Law & Politics of Brexit, (Oxford University Press, 2017).

Resource Address (URL)

https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=39800201709408609111707601802811600…

Keywords

independence

Constitution

Language English

Brexit and the inevitability of Scottish Independence

Stephen Richard — Tue, 05 Oct 2021 11:55:59 +0000

Brexit and the inevitability of Scottish Independence

Primary Author or Creator

Paul Cairney

Stephen Richard Tue, 10/05/2021 - 12:55

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Centre on Constitutional Change

Date Published

Mon, 06/27/2016 - 12:00

Category

https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/opinions/brexit-and-inevitabilit…

Type of Resource

Assessment report

Fast Facts

Only independence can remove the democratic deficit. Scottish independence is the cosmopolitan choice. There will be some economic damage, uncertainty, and a new currency.

No has, in some ways, a stronger case in the second referendum but a far lower chance of success: it will lose because there will be no-one out there able to tell the No story.

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Keywords

Democracy

Yes Campaign

Language English

Scottish independence trading costs calculated

Stephen Richard — Tue, 05 Oct 2021 11:32:47 +0000

Scottish independence trading costs calculated

Primary Author or Creator

Douglas Fraser

Stephen Richard Tue, 10/05/2021 - 12:32

Additional Author(s) / Creators

BBC

Date Published

Wed, 02/03/2021 - 12:00

Category

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55921961

Type of Resource

web page

Fast Facts

There may be significant economic costs resulting from independence. However, there is no reason Scotland cannot prosper as other small nations have. This report looks at the cumulative effect over 15 years.

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Keywords

International trade

Borders

Language English

How Brexit shapes people's views on Scottish independence

Stephen Richard — Tue, 05 Oct 2021 11:18:44 +0000

How Brexit shapes people's views on Scottish independence

Primary Author or Creator

John Curtice

Stephen Richard Tue, 10/05/2021 - 12:18

Additional Author(s) / Creators

BBC

Date Published

Wed, 01/20/2021 - 12:00

Category

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-55803103

Type of Resource

web page

Fast Facts

A review of polls at January 2021 shows increasing support for independence, possibly due to Brexit.

Resource Address (URL)

Keywords

Independence polls

Language English

Brexit, nationalism and disintegration in the European Union and the United Kingdom

Stephen Richard — Wed, 29 Sep 2021 19:20:00 +0000

Brexit, nationalism and disintegration in the European Union and the United Kingdom

Primary Author or Creator

Ben Wellings

Stephen Richard Wed, 09/29/2021 - 20:20

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Add additional Authors and/or Publisher

Alternative Published Date

2020

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