Scottish Independence

Voter opposition to Scottish independence

Stephen Richard — Sat, 23 Oct 2021 06:12:08 +0000

Voter opposition to Scottish independence Stephen Richard Sat, 10/23/2021 - 07:12

Author or Creator

Common Weal

Country of Birth is a substantial driver of support for independence. Support for independence is particularly volatile amongst males aged 34-55 but remains relatively stable for other age groups. Support for independence amongst females is generally rising in all age groups.

Remain voters are far more likely to say they will vote for independence and Leave voters now far more likely to vote against.

Social grades ABC1 were overwhelmingly likely to vote No. Social grades C2DE are extremely likely to vote for independence.

Labour and Liberal Democrat voters are volatile with their support for independence. Conservative voters are overwhelmingly against independence but around 5% of Conservative voters are consistently pro-independence.

More details

― Between 2014 and 2018, overall support for independence continuously fell from around 45% to a low of 40%. It subsequently rose continuously to a high just above 50% in early 2021 before dropping back to 45% by June 2021.

― Country of Birth is a substantial driver of support for independence though data is extremely limited in this respect. Support for independence amongst people born in Scotland has fallen below the level of support seen in 2014. Support for independence has risen substantially above 2014 levels among people born outwith Scotland.

― The impact of voters not born in Scotland on support for independence has reduced very substantially since 2014 with the gap between Yes and No in this group narrowing. There is clear evidence that many New Scots can and have been convinced to support independence in the time since 2014.

― Support for independence is particularly volatile amongst males aged 34-55 but remains relatively stable for other age groups.

― Support for independence amongst females is generally rising in all age groups but a substantial ‘generation gap’ is widening and 2021 has seen a dramatic fall in support for independence amongst young females.

― People who voted Yes in 2014 have remained very stable in their support at least since the 2016 Brexit referendum. 2014 No voters are much more changeable and make up the majority of the population of people who have changed their minds one or more times since 2014.

― In 2016 attitudes towards independence and attitudes towards Brexit were not strongly linked but have since become much more correlated. Remain voters are far more likely to say they will vote for independence and Leave voters now far more likely to vote against.

― Social grades ABC1 were overwhelmingly likely to vote No in 2014 but the vast majority of the overall gains in support between 2018 and 2020 came from this group. However, so did the majority of the loss of support in 2021 indicating that this population is swayable, but fickle in its support.

― Social grades C2DE are extremely likely to vote for independence. Their support for independence has also been much more stable as a whole than their ABC1 counterparts. However, this group is substantially less likely to turn out and vote.

― SNP voters are the most likely to support independence though around one in five voters are not. The Brexit referendum saw large drop in support for independence amongst SNP voters followed by a rapid recovery – one interpretation of this is that ‘Leave’ voters have switched to voting for a party other than the pro-EU SNP.

― Labour and Liberal Democrat voters are volatile with their support for independence and are so in a way that doesn’t easily correlate with events affecting the overall polls.

― Conservative voters are overwhelmingly against independence but around 5% of Conservative voters are consistently pro-independence. Extrapolating from the recent elections in Scotland, this indicates that there are more pro-independence Conservative voters in Scotland than there are paid members of the party (the same is also true for Labour and the Lib Dems).

The lack of detailed studies of public attitudes towards independence and/or the Union since 2014 which are publicly available has severely hampered the campaign for Scottish independence and may have led some campaigners to severely misunderstand or simply miss trends and shifting opinions which have significantly changed the electoral map of Scotland in the time since the last independence referendum. It is now urgent that more and better data are gathered not just on headline numbers but within demographics and in a way that can compliment the now considerable level of longitudinal information on shifting trends in opinion on independence.

What scant data we have, gleaned from subsamples of a relatively limited number of polls, are showing that Scotland is not changing its opinion of independence in a ‘uniform swing’ where the whole population moves its support up or down all at once in a manner that one might infer from only looking at headline numbers. Older males are becoming steadily less inclined towards independence at the same time as older females are becoming more inclined. Younger females have experienced a recent and sudden relative aversion towards independence that is not replicated at all by their male peers. The electorate have increasingly aligned their attitudes towards the EU along with their attitudes towards independence in a way that may make it difficult to separate the two. The voters of pro-Union parties are significantly less pro-Union than the parties they vote for. And the attitudes towards independence amongst native Scots is declining whilst ‘New Scots’ are shifting ever more in favour of creating a new country in a land not of their birth.

All of these factors create a problem and an opportunity for the independence movement. The problem is that we need to realign our campaign and messaging based not on our own personal experiences, bias or even prejudices but to base it on the wants and needs of the people we speak to as we campaign. The opportunity, however, is to craft a campaign that is effective, can harness the votes of people who have shown themselves capable of considering independence at some point over the past several years and ultimately create the conditions for an independent Scotland built on a foundation of support that will ensure the best possible start to a new country

Keywords

Scottish Independence

Opposition to Scottish independence

Opinion polls

No voters

Must Scots settle for cronyism and incompetence? Open Minds on Independence #21

Stephen Richard — Sun, 10 Oct 2021 16:58:31 +0000

Must Scots settle for cronyism and incompetence? Open Minds on Independence #21

Primary Author or Creator

The National

Stephen Richard Sun, 10/10/2021 - 17:58

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Believe in Scotland

Date Published

Tue, 04/27/2021 - 12:00

Category

Independence

Type of Resource

News Media

Fast Facts

Scotland's ambition does not end with winning independence. That is just the start. It y offers us the freedom to create the country we want to live in.

The issues we should prioritise include:
healthy life expectancy,
enhancing feelings of personal security,
tackling the poverty which afflicts pensioners,
low-wage workers and children, and
ensuring our young people enjoy positive opportunities to forge fulfilling careers and happy lives.

Our economy should have strong world links:
We should help countries in need
Encourage immigration to build a strong, successful and diverse Scotland.
it should be built on Scotland's natural resources and establish it as a leader in sustainable and renewable energy

To build this new country is a challenging task. The benefits of real growth and prosperity need be more equally shared. We might not, of course, get everything perfect first time. We may make mistakes.

Resource Address (URL)

https://www.thenational.scot/news/19256304.open-minds-independence-21-must-scot…

Keywords

Scottish Independence

Language English

Plurinationalism and its Effect on Independence Movements: A Case Study of Scotland and Catalonia

Stephen Richard — Fri, 24 Sep 2021 11:56:54 +0000

Plurinationalism and its Effect on Independence Movements: A Case Study of Scotland and Catalonia

Primary Author or Creator

Makayla Connor

Stephen Richard Fri, 09/24/2021 - 12:56

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Add additional Authors and/or PublisherBrandeis University

Alternative Published Date

2021

Category

Independence

Type of Resource

Academic Thesis

Length (Pages, words, minutes etc...)

523Kb, 100pp

Fast Facts

While both Scotland and Catalonia’s independence movements have not been successful thus far, it will be interesting to see which economic, political, or social factors may prompt either of these nations to succeed in their independence movements or perhaps lead them to determine that independence may no longer need to be sought.

More details

Michael Keating’s notion of plurinationalism, used in Plurinational Democracies, is a useful concept to understand the nature of national identity within minority nations, such as Scotland or Catalonia. However, it cannot be used to determine when independence movements will or will not take place. It did not have the effect it was expected to have on independence movements at the time it was written in 2001. There are other factors that can be more relevant than national identity trends which may prompt nations to seek independence from their sovereign states earlier than may have been anticipated. While independence movements cannot take place without these minority national identities still being 92 present, it is not the sole determinant of independence movements. While both Scotland and Catalonia’s independence movements have not been successful thus far, it will be interesting to see which economic, political, or social factors may prompt either of these nations to succeed in their independence movements or perhaps lead them to determine that independence may no longer need to be sought. If either or both of these independence movements succeed, it will be worth noting the potential effects it may then have on other minority nations that may choose to seek independence in the future.

Resource Address (URL)

https://scholarworks.brandeis.edu/esploro/outputs/undergraduate/Plurinationalis…

Keywords

Scottish Independence

Catalonia independence

Representation in the UK

Scottish identity

National identity

Language English

Bella Caledonia

Stephen Richard — Thu, 16 Sep 2021 14:01:42 +0000

Bella Caledonia

Primary Author or Creator

Mike Small

Stephen Richard Thu, 09/16/2021 - 15:01

Alternative Published Date

2007 -

Category

Independence

Type of Resource

News Media

Fast Facts

"We’re not aligned to any one political party but believe in self-determination for Scotland. Only then will a country disfigured by poverty and inequality be re-born. Only independence can bring democracy. The British State is irredeemable and is structurally corrupt, broken and riven with hierarchy."

Resource Address (URL)

https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/

Keywords

Scottish Independence

news media

Scottish opinion

Language English

Best start for independent Scotland

Stephen Richard — Tue, 14 Sep 2021 08:58:40 +0000

Best start for independent Scotland

Primary Author or Creator

Common Weal

Stephen Richard Tue, 09/14/2021 - 09:58

Alternative Published Date

2020

Category

Independence

Type of Resource

Video

Fast Facts

Common Weal believes in Scottish independence – but we believe it is essential to get it right. It’s not enough to tell people independence would be ‘good for them’, you have to explain how it would be done and be ready to answer your questions. That’s what Common Weal did with the White Paper Project, a programme of commissioning and producing reports which led to a proper plan being published as How To Start A New Countr y.

The fastest way to get up to speed with How To Start A New Country is to watch this seven-minute video because the volume of work behind it is enormous.

Resource Address (URL)

https://commonweal.scot/big-ideas/best-start-for-independent-scotland/

Keywords

Scottish Independence

Language English

Economic Implications for the United Kingdom of Scottish Independence - Economic Affairs Committee

Stephen Richard — Sat, 11 Sep 2021 20:18:28 +0000

Economic Implications for the United Kingdom of Scottish Independence - Economic Affairs Committee

Primary Author or Creator

House of Lords

Stephen Richard Sat, 09/11/2021 - 21:18

Alternative Published Date

2013

Category

Economy

Type of Resource

Assessment report

Fast Facts

Voters in Scotland deserve the best evidence-based assessment of the likely economic consequences of independence. We have sought to collect and assess that evidence as part of our analysis of the economic implications for the whole United Kingdom.

More details

There can be no definitive answer to the question of whether an independent Scotland would be more prosperous, less prosperous or as prosperous as Scotland is now. Our report identifies clear threats to Scotland's prosperity under independence; while the upside is uncertain.

Continued use of sterling by an independent Scotland in monetary union with the rest of the UK is the stated preference of the Scottish Government. But it would raise complex problems of cross-border monetary policy, multiple financial regulators and taxpayer exposure and could only come about, if at all, on terms agreed by the UK Government. Arrangements should be clear before the referendum. But the proposal for the Scottish Government to exert some influence over the Bank of England, let alone the rest of the UK exchequer, is devoid of precedent and entirely fanciful.

Dismantling the current fiscal union would result in a loss of risk-sharing mechanisms between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK. This would be an adverse consequence for the citizens of both states, but particularly for people in Scotland given the relative size of the two countries.

An independent Scotland would need to have a double taxation agreement with the rest of the UK and to negotiate tax treaties and similar agreements with a range of countries.

here is not enough information about the defence policy of an independent Scotland to enable Scottish voters to make an informed judgment in next year's referendum. We recommend that the Scottish Government should make a sustained effort to clarify the issues before the vote, giving an indication of its expected defence budget, military establishment, scale of procurement and impact on Scotland's workforce skills base, as well as indicating the terms of Scotland's application to join NATO. This would help Scottish voters assess the employment and economic as well the security implications of an independent defence policy

Resource Address (URL)

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201213/ldselect/ldeconaf/152/15209.htm

Keywords

Scottish Independence

Currency

Finance

Taxation

Language English

How To Start a New Country & A Short Guide To Starting a New Country

Stephen Richard — Wed, 18 Aug 2021 22:26:48 +0000

How To Start a New Country & A Short Guide To Starting a New Country

Primary Author or Creator

Common Weal

Stephen Richard Wed, 08/18/2021 - 23:26

Alternative Published Date

August 2021

Category

Scottish government

Type of Resource

Policy Paper

Fast Facts

Both books are essential reading for both believers in Scottish independence and undecided voters who seek answers to their practical questions about the processes required for starting an independent country.

More details

Common Weal is proud to present the end result of 18 months of work on the White Paper Project: a blueprint for how to start an independent Scotland, together with a short guide to starting a new nation, arming the independence movement with the most important piece of work completed since the 2014 referendum.

The purpose of this work is to explore the practical steps that Scotland would have to take if it wanted to become an independent country. The book’s starting point is the day after the referendum at which a majority of Scotland have voted for independence and it ends three years later with Independence Day.

Based predominantly on Common Weal’s 18 month long White Paper Project, the book explores how Scotland would build its new systems and infrastructure, how it would pay for it all and how much it would cost.

An independent Scotland should aim to establish itself as a 21st century nation. It is an excellent opportunity to design the country not as an adaptation of the 19th century nation but as one which is rooted in modernity.

Resource Address (URL)

https://commonweal.scot/shop/package-deal-two-books-how-to-start-a-new-country-…

Keywords

Scottish Independence

Foreign Currency Reserves

Language English

Support for Independence drops significantly if Scotland were to join Euro

Olanna — Sat, 07 Aug 2021 17:13:57 +0000

Support for Independence drops significantly if Scotland were to join Euro

Primary Author or Creator

Malnick, Edward

Olanna Sat, 08/07/2021 - 18:13

Additional Author(s) / Creators

Redfield and Wilton Strategies, the SundayTelegraph

Date Published

Sat, 08/07/2021 - 12:00

Category

Independence

Economy

Type of Resource

Newspaper article

Fast Facts

40% Scots less likely to support Independence if Scotland had to join the Euro.

More details

Survey of 1,000 Scottish adults for the Sunday Telegraph by Redfield and Wilton Strategies.

Nicola Sturgeon announced that following successful Independence vote, Scotland would join EU. EU declared that Scotland would have to join the Euro. Sturgeon says this should be open to negotiation. Survey by Redfield and Wilton Strategies found that 40% of Scots would be less likely to support Independence if Scotland were to replace the Pound with the Euro.

Resource Address (URL)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/08/07/support-independence-drops-sign…

Keywords

Scottish Independence

Economics

Euro

Voting strategies

Language English

Better than This

Stephen Richard — Sat, 31 Jul 2021 07:25:57 +0000

Better than This

Primary Author or Creator

Common Weal

Stephen Richard Sat, 07/31/2021 - 08:25

Alternative Published Date

2021

Category

Type of Resource

Policy Paper

Fast Facts

Resilient Recovery. We must emerge from the Covid pandemic in a way that fixes the problems raised by the crisis, fixes the problems evident before the crisis and makes us resilient; a green new deal; a new democracy; a national care service; Land reform; housing revolution; Controlling our own energy; better banking; and a focus on independence,.to future crisis like the climate emergency.

More details

KEY POINTS

― Resilient Recovery. We must emerge from the Covid pandemic in a way that fixes the problems raised by the crisis, fixes the problems evident before the crisis and makes us resilient to future crisis like the climate emergency. Based on our Resilience series.

― Green New Deal. Averting the climate emergency means more than just hitting a “net zero” target. It is also about making our economies sustainable in so many other ways and doing so in a way that reduces inequality and hardship. Based on Our Common Home Plan.

― A New Democracy. Scotland is the least locally democratic country in Europe and the institutions of our Government are frayed and strained in many places. We should develop a functioning system of local democracy, a Citizens’ Chamber to oversee Parliament and improve transparency at all levels of government.

― A National Care Service. Scotland needs a National Care Service that matches the ambition of the National Health Service, that is fully publicly owned, free at the point of need and can offer full training and proper pay to all staff. See our papers on the impact of Covid on Care Homes, our submission to the Feeley Review, the Manifesto for an NCS and our proposals to reform Social Work.

― Land Reform. Fewer than 500 people own half of Scotland. 700,000 acres are owned by tax haven companies. We can’t build our rural economies or fight climate change if we can’t access the land under our feet. Land Reform must happen now. See our Land Reform Week for more information.

― Housing Revolution. Scotland’s housing sector is badly broken. We don’t build anywhere near enough social housing, which allows private rents to skyrocket. The houses we do build are cold and expensive to heat, we can’t access the land to build them at affordable rates and the way we tax buildings is based on valuations more than a quarter of a century out of date.

― Taking Control of Our Energy. Scotland’s potential for renewable energy generation is world-leading but we aren’t yet making the best of it. Common Weal has produced a wealth of papers on the changes that need to happen to reach that potential.

― Better Banking. Scottish communities were being cut off from banking and basic financial services even before the pandemic. This trend has only accelerated. Without those services, local economies cannot function and the communities are soon left behind. We have a blueprint for a publicly-owned, mutually-controlled bank that could support all communities in Scotland.

And finally, the next Parliament will almost certainly see the topic of independence intensify. Everything we’ve suggested above can be at least started using the powers of devolution but to complete the job – especially the Green New Deal – Scotland will need to become independent and will need to do it right. Should the government in Westminster seek to oppose an independence referendum, then we must have a plan to make one happen regardless.

Resource Address (URL)

https://commonweal.scot/policies/better-than-this/

Keywords

Coronavirus Support

Scottish Independence

Housing

National Care Service

Housing

Green new deal

Climate Emergency

Language English